Most of the decisions for this Eredivisie season have already been made before the final round, but there's still some competition left. The real tension is at the bottom of the table, where RKC Waalwijk and Excelsior are fighting to avoid relegation. It could come down to goal difference, but a big surprise is still possible.
RKC and Excelsior Face a Challenge
Only three goals separate the two teams in the standings at the moment, with RKC Waalwijk having a goal difference of -16 and Excelsior at -19. Both teams face away games against top clubs. RKC Waalwijk will visit provincial rival PSV, while Excelsior has an even shorter trip to take on city rival Feyenoord in De Kuip.
These matches typically feature plenty of goals, and while both teams will be hoping for an upset, they will likely need to focus on defense. RKC has only scored three times in their last thirteen away games against PSV in the Eredivisie, while conceding 29 goals in those matches (an average of 2.2 per game). Similarly, Excelsior has scored just four goals in their last ten Eredivisie matches against Feyenoord at De Kuip, while conceding 29 goals (an average of 2.9 per game).
The Race to Avoid Play-Offs
Both teams are doing everything they can to avoid the promotion and relegation play-offs, as participating in them does not guarantee a spot in the top division next season. Only two of the last ten teams that entered the play-offs as the sixteenth-placed team in the Eredivisie managed to stay up (Roda JC Kerkrade in 2012/13 and Willem II in 2015/16).
16th Place in the Eredivisie Facing Play-Offs
Team | Season | Result |
---|---|---|
FC Emmen |
2022/23 |
Relegated |
Heracles Almelo |
2021/22 |
Relegated |
FC Emmen |
2020/21 |
Relegated |
Excelsior |
2018/19 |
Relegated |
Roda JC Kerkrade |
2017/18 |
Relegated |
N.E.C. |
2016/17 |
Relegated |
Willem II |
2015/16 |
Preventing Relegation |
NAC Breda |
2014/15 |
Relegated |
RKC Waalwijk |
2013/14 |
Relegated |
Roda JC Kerkrade |
2012/13 |
Preventing Relegation |
RKC and Excelsior's Experience in the Battle Against Relegation
For both RKC Waalwijk and Excelsior, the current situation is not new; they are experienced teams in the battle against relegation. No team has played more in the promotion/relegation play-offs as an Eredivisie club than RKC Waalwijk (6 times, tied with De Graafschap), and the Waalwijkers have done so at least twice more than any other team finishing in sixteenth place (5 times). Excelsior was involved in a heated battle with FC Emmen last season to avoid relegation directly, ultimately finishing four points above Emmen.
Participation in Relegation Play-Offs as Eredivisie Team
Team | As 16th-placed Team | As 17th-placed Team |
---|---|---|
RKC Waalwijk |
5 |
1 |
De Graafschap |
1 |
5 |
N.E.C. |
2 |
3 |
Sparta Rotterdam |
1 |
4 |
VVV-Venlo |
1 |
4 |
Excelsior |
3 |
1 |
Roda JC Kerkrade |
3 |
1 |
Can Heracles avoid the relegation Play-Offs?
However, there's also a third scenario possible, namely that the current fifteenth-placed team, Heracles Almelo, will have to prepare for the relegation playoffs. If both RKC Waalwijk and Excelsior manage to win, and Heracles loses to Fortuna Sittard, then the Heraclids will have to play a few extra matches for survival. And that scenario is not entirely out of the question. RKC Waalwijk and Excelsior have been in good form in recent weeks. In fact, only Feyenoord had more shots (51), shots on target (22), and Expected Goals (9.4) than RKC Waalwijk in the Eredivisie this month (41 shots, 15 on target, and 5.8 Expected Goals). Meanwhile, Excelsior has earned seven points in the last four match rounds, winning 4-0 twice (W2, D1), which is as many points as in the seventeen Eredivisie matches prior (W1, D4).
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Eredivisie table
# | Club | GS | W | V | G | DV-DT | DS | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PSV | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27-5 | +22 | 24 |
2 | FC Utrecht | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14-8 | +6 | 19 |
3 | AZ | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17-5 | +12 | 16 |
4 | FC Twente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14-7 | +7 | 14 |
5 | Ajax | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13-4 | +9 | 13 |
6 | Feyenoord | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14-7 | +7 | 13 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10-10 | 0 | 13 |
8 | Willem II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11-9 | +2 | 11 |
9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9-9 | 0 | 10 |
# | Club | GS | W | V | G | DV-DT | DS | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8-13 | -5 | 10 |
11 | FC Groningen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11-11 | 0 | 9 |
12 | Heracles Almelo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7-13 | -6 | 9 |
13 | NAC Breda | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6-14 | -8 | 9 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8-11 | -3 | 8 |
15 | sc Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10-17 | -7 | 8 |
16 | N.E.C. Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7-9 | -2 | 7 |
17 | Almere City FC | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2-19 | -17 | 2 |
18 | RKC Waalwijk | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 5-22 | -17 | 0 |