Highlighted: The 'Luck' of Willem II
At roughly one-quarter of the season, Willem II is sitting comfortably in eighth place. The Tilburg side has already faced five teams from the current top half of the table and has shown they can hold their own in these matches. The question remains: have Peter Maes' men had a stroke of luck, or is the club simply extremely efficient in their finishing? Time will tell if they can maintain their current form.
A clear example of Willem II not having any misfortune this Eredivisie season was their last match against Almere City FC. Almere recorded 23 shots, seven on target, hit the crossbar once, and had a total of 1.7 Expected Goals. In contrast, Willem II had four attempts at goal, with just one on target and an Expected Goals value of 0.35. Final score: 0-1 in favour of Willem II.
Amar Fatah celebrated the winning goal for Willem II during their visit to Almere City.
Low stats despite a high position in the league table
This match was not an exception to the rule. In particular, Willem II's attacking performance is significantly lower than one might expect when looking at their current league position. The Tilburg side has recorded the fewest shots this Eredivisie season (63), the joint fewest shots on target (21, tied with PEC Zwolle), and the lowest Expected Goals (5.6). With a difference of +5.4, they boast the second-largest overperformance of this Eredivisie season, behind PSV (+7.6). Since Opta has been fully analysing the Eredivisie (from the 2010/11 season), no team has had fewer shots and shots on target per match in a season than Willem II has this year.
| Team | Season | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|
|
Willem II |
2024/25 |
7.9 |
|
ADO Den Haag |
2020/21 |
8.4 |
|
FC Groningen |
2024/25 |
9.1 |
|
NAC Breda |
2024/25 |
9.3 |
|
ADO Den Haag |
2019/20 |
9.4 |
High conversion rate
With such underlying statistics, it remains to be seen whether the Tricolores can maintain their current points average. Almost everything the Tilburgers have shot on goal this Eredivisie season has turned to gold: 17.5 percent of their shots have resulted in a goal, marking the highest shot conversion rate for a team since the 2010/11 season. Typically, overperforming on such a scale is not sustainable over a longer period.
| Team | Season | Shot conversion |
|---|---|---|
|
Willem II |
2024/25 |
17,5% |
|
FC Utrecht |
2024/25 |
17,3% |
|
Ajax |
2018/19 |
17,3% |
|
PSV |
2024/25 |
16,9% |
|
PSV |
2012/13 |
16,0% |
|
sc Heerenveen |
2011/12 |
16,0% |
A team can certainly enjoy a bit of luck over a longer period and peak at the right moments. With players like Kyan Vaesen, Cisse Sandra, and Ringo Meerveld, Willem II has attacking talents capable of making a difference, and their defensive performance has also been decent. The Tilburgers managed to keep a clean sheet three times in their first eight league matches this season and could record at least four clean sheets in the first nine matches of an Eredivisie season for the third time in the club's history (previously achieving this in 1965/66 and 1995/96).
Willem II - Fortuna Sittard
Can Willem II maintain their current form? Or will Fortuna Sittard climb over the Tricolores this Sunday? Kick-off is at 12:15 PM at the Koning Willem II Stadion.
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