This weekend, the Eredivisie match between last season's play-off final contenders takes centre stage. While FC Utrecht has been highly impressive this season, it was the surprisingly strong Go Ahead Eagles who clinched the European ticket last year. This season, the Deventer side's results have been somewhat inconsistent, but they secured a spectacular victory against N.E.C. last week. Based on Paul Simonis' team's performances, Go Ahead could once again challenge for a spot in European football.
Looking at the league table, FC Utrecht goes into Sunday’s match as the favourite against Go Ahead Eagles. However, the Deventer side can draw confidence from their strong performances. Only four teams have taken more shots than Go Ahead this season, and in terms of Expected Goals (xG), they rank fifth. Defensively, only Feyenoord and PSV have conceded fewer xG than the Eagles.
Despite this, luck hasn’t been on their side, as they’ve conceded seven more goals than the chances suggest they should have. Interestingly, second-placed FC Utrecht sits much lower in both the Expected Goals for and against rankings, highlighting a potential vulnerability despite their position on the table.
Only four teams have taken more shots than Go Ahead this season, and the team also ranks fifth in terms of Expected Goals (xG).
# | Team | xG | Goals | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
PSV |
36.5 |
56 |
19.5 |
2 |
FC Twente |
29.1 |
30 |
0.9 |
3 |
Feyenoord |
26.9 |
35 |
8.1 |
4 |
Ajax |
26.5 |
32 |
5.5 |
5 |
Go Ahead Eagles |
26.0 |
25 |
-1.0 |
6 |
AZ |
25.6 |
28 |
2.4 |
7 |
N.E.C. |
21.7 |
21 |
-0.7 |
8 |
Fortuna Sittard |
19.7 |
17 |
-2.7 |
9 |
FC Utrecht |
18.5 |
29 |
10.5 |
10 |
Heracles Almelo |
17.8 |
16 |
-1.8 |
Defensively, only Feyenoord and PSV have conceded fewer Expected Goals (xG) than Go Ahead Eagles. However, luck hasn’t been on their side, as they’ve conceded seven more goals than the chances would suggest. Interestingly, second-placed FC Utrecht ranks much lower on both the Expected Goals for and against lists.
# | Team | xG against | Goals against | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Feyenoord |
11.1 |
16 |
5.0 |
2 |
PSV |
12.7 |
12 |
-0.7 |
3 |
Go Ahead Eagles |
15.7 |
23 |
7.4 |
4 |
AZ |
15.8 |
16 |
0.2 |
5 |
FC Twente |
17.3 |
20 |
2.7 |
6 |
Sparta R'dam |
17.4 |
23 |
5.6 |
7 |
Ajax |
17.6 |
16 |
-1.6 |
8 |
N.E.C. |
18.5 |
19 |
0.5 |
9 |
Fortuna Sittard |
19.3 |
21 |
1.7 |
10 |
FC Utrecht |
20.0 |
20 |
0.0 |
History shows that as the season progresses, teams tend to get closer to their Expected Goals (xG) numbers. It seemed only a matter of time before Go Ahead Eagles would secure a convincing victory, so their 5-0 win over N.E.C. didn't come as a complete surprise.
The standout player for Go Ahead Eagles was Oliver Edvardsen, who netted a hat-trick within just 25 minutes. He became the first player to score a hat-trick in under 25 minutes since Afonso Alves on October 7, 2007, who achieved the feat in just 18 minutes for SC Heerenveen against Heracles Almelo.
Edvardsen has been crucial for his team this season. Go Ahead struggled to find the back of the net when the Norwegian was absent earlier in the campaign. In the 599 minutes Edvardsen has played this season, Go Ahead scored 18 Eredivisie goals, compared to just seven in the 877 minutes he was not on the field. Edvardsen himself has contributed seven goals and two assists
With O. Edvardsen on the field | Stat | Without O. Edvardsen on the field |
---|---|---|
599 |
Minutes |
877 |
18 |
Goals |
7 |
2.8 |
Goals per 90 min |
0.7 |
But the importance of Oliver Antman and Jakob Breum should not be underestimated. Only three players have created more chances from open play in the Eredivisie this season than Antman, who is ahead of only three players from bigger clubs, and they’ve played more minutes.
His teammate Jakob Breum plays a crucial role earlier in the build-up. The attacking midfielder has provided 22 passes this season to the player who then created a chance, with only Sven Mijnans registering more assists leading up to a goal attempt. Four of these passes resulted in a pre-assist for Breum.
Player | Pass leading to a chance | Pre-assists |
---|---|---|
Sven Mijnans |
23 |
4 |
Jakob Breum |
22 |
4 |
Michel Vlap |
20 |
2 |
Igor Paixão |
19 |
2 |
Malik Tillman |
18 |
2 |
Go Ahead Eagles managed to surprise FC Utrecht in the battle for European football last season. Can they do it again this coming Sunday?